KNOXVILLE (WATE) - University of
Tennessee researchers studying weather in the eastern United States say regional weather will become hotter and wetter in the coming decades.
Joshua Fu, a civil and
environmental engineering professor, and Yang Gao, a graduate research
assistant, developed precise scales of cities which show high-resolution climate changes almost 50 years into the
future.
The study found that
heat waves will become more severe in most regions of the eastern United States
and that both the Northeast and Southeast will see a drastic increase in
precipitation.
The findings are
published in the Nov. 6 edition of Environmental Research Letters.
Using Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Titan supercomputer, they used topography and climate modeling on a small scale to study climate changes.
"Instead of studying
regions, which is not useful when examining extreme weather, dynamical
downscaling allows us to study small areas such as cities with a fine
resolution," said Fu.
The researchers
evaluated extreme events along with daily maximum and minimum temperatures and
daily precipitation.
For the 23 states east of the Mississippi River, they
analyzed the present-day climate from 2001 to 2004 and predicted the future
climate from 2057 to 2059.
This is the first study to predict heat waves for the
top 20 cities in the eastern U.S.
For example, Nashville will see a temperature
rise of 3.21 degrees Celsius and Memphis will see a rise of 2.18 degrees
Celsius.
In comparing present
climate to future, the researchers found that heat waves will become more severe
throughout the eastern part of the nation.
The Northeast and eastern Midwest
will experience a greater increase in heat waves than the Southeast, which will
almost equalize the temperatures between the future North and current
South.
"Currently, the mean
heat wave duration is about four days in the Northeast and eastern Midwest and
five days in the Southeast," said Fu. "By the end of the 2050s, the Northeast
and eastern Midwest will be gaining on the Southeast by increasing two
days."
In addition, the
Northeast and eastern Midwest are likely to suffer from steeper increases in the
severity of heat waves.
"While the Southeast has
the highest intensity in heat waves, the northeast is likely to experience the
highest increase," said Fu. "We are looking at temperature increases of three to five
degrees Celsius, with New York experiencing the highest hike."
Both the Northeast and
Southeast will experience an increase of precipitation of 35 percent or more.
Most coastal states will see the greatest increase, of about 150 millimeters a
year.
Taking into consideration heat waves and extreme precipitation, the
Northeast shows the largest increases in precipitation. This suggests a greater
risk of flooding.
"It is important that
the nation take actions to mitigate the impact of climate change in the next
several decades," said Fu. "These changes not only cost money—about a billion a
year in the U.S.—but they also cost lives."
