Is a major snow event on tap late next week

Social media fact vs. fiction: Is a major snow event on tap late next week?

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This European Forecast Model is making the rounds on social media, which indicates a major snow event late next week. This European Forecast Model is making the rounds on social media, which indicates a major snow event late next week.
The current version of that same model is showing some much warmer temperatures, which would mean a mainly rain event. The current version of that same model is showing some much warmer temperatures, which would mean a mainly rain event.
If we compare it to the current version of the American Forecast Model, it isn't even showing any precipitation for the exact same time. If we compare it to the current version of the American Forecast Model, it isn't even showing any precipitation for the exact same time.

By KEN WEATHERS
6 Storm Team Meteorologist

KNOXVILLE (WATE) - It has been a snowy and cold week with some tricky travel, but already people are buzzing on social media about the potential of a major winter storm next week.

It is a battle between social media vs. science and rumor vs. fact. 

There are several different forecast models we use to create a forecast. Some are short range models, usually a little more detailed. Others are long range, which give you a better idea of trends or changes that may be coming. 

Forecast models are either deterministic or ensembles. A deterministic model is what most people see posted on the Internet. It gives one solution or one model forecast, whereas an ensemble forecast model uses multiple solutions, which can help to eliminate errors.

Remember, forecast models are guidance and not gospel.

Forecast models can vary or change quite often with every new update that is produced, especially when it comes to a long range forecast.

These models start based on what is happening right now. So if the next model run has different information to start, it can drastically adjust or change what it is showing seven or more days out.

When you compare the current version of the European Forecast Model with the one that is circulating on the Internet, you will notice that there are some big differences.

The current version is showing some much warmer temperatures, which would mean a mainly rain event. If we compare it to the current version of the American Forecast Model, it isn't even showing any precipitation for the exact same time.

So basically, don't freak out and know that the 6 Storm Team is on your side and will continue to follow any potential for threatening weather, no matter when it might occur.

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