KNOXVILLE (WATE) - It has been a snowy and cold
week with some tricky travel, but already people are buzzing on social media
about the potential of a major winter storm next week.
It is a battle between social media vs. science and rumor vs. fact.
There are several different
forecast models we use to create a forecast. Some are short range models,
usually a little more detailed. Others are long range, which give you a
better idea of trends or changes that may be coming.
Forecast models are
either deterministic or ensembles. A deterministic model is what most
people see posted on the Internet. It gives one solution or one model
forecast, whereas an ensemble forecast model uses multiple solutions, which can
help to eliminate errors.
Remember, forecast models are guidance and not
Forecast models can vary or change quite often with every new update
that is produced, especially when it comes to a long range forecast.
models start based on what is happening right now. So if the
next model run has different information to start, it can drastically adjust or
change what it is showing seven or more days out.
When you compare the current
version of the European Forecast Model with the one that is circulating on the Internet, you will notice that there are some big differences.
version is showing some much warmer temperatures, which would mean a mainly rain
event. If we compare it to the current version of the American Forecast Model,
it isn't even showing any precipitation for the exact same time.
basically, don't freak out and know that the 6 Storm Team is on your side and
will continue to follow any potential for threatening weather, no matter when
it might occur.