IHME estimates on COVID-19 deaths in Tennessee dramatically lower

Coronavirus

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (WATE) – Some good news for Tennessee in the estimates of coronavirus deaths and the need for intensive care and total hospital beds.

Projected COVID-19 deaths and hospital bed use for Tennessee from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, or IHME, are down sharply in its latest data update.

RELATED: Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee sees good news in virus model, urges vigilance

The University of Washington institute’s COVID-19 forecasts have been closely watched by both state and federal officials.

An Apirl 5 update from IHME on the estimated number of deaths per day from COVID-19 in Tennessee (Screenshot)

The projected peak deaths per day in Tennessee in its April 5 update is 25 on April 18, down from its April 2 estimate of 165 per day on April 20.

The new data also forecasts 587 total deaths in Tennessee by Aug. 4, down from 3,422.

Hospital bed use is now expected to peak on April 15 with the need for 1,232 hospital beds and 245 ICU beds.

This is dramatically lower than the 15,618 hosptial beds and 2,428 ICU beds it been projecting would be needed by April 19.

IHME now projects at the peak, 208 ventilators will be needed on April 15, down from 1,943 in its previous forecast.

IHME said more data and better models is allowing it to improve its forecasts. It still projects more 80,000 will die in the United States of COVID-19-related illnesses by Aug. 4. It latest forecast show deaths per day nationwide peaking at 3,130 on April 16.

Vice President Mike Pence said Sunday the White House coronavirus task force had begun to see some glimmers of improvement in its data.

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